Experts tip big net attack

[DigitalX]

Don't say we didn't warn you: At some point in the next decade, there will be a "devastating attack" on the internet or power grid.

 

That scenario was deemed most plausible by 1,300 technology experts and scholars in a survey by the Pew Internet & American Life Project. Other predictions that drew the most agreement:

 

* We'll be watched more closely by government and businesses through computing devices embedded in clothes, appliances, cars and phones.

* Most students will spend part of their day in "virtual classes," grouped online with others who share their abilities and interests.

* And the boundaries between work and leisure will be blurred - in other words, expect to hear from your boss anytime, anywhere.

 

Although the internet was technically born in 1969 as a plaything of computer scientists, it only became accessible to the mainstream a decade ago. Since then, it has insinuated itself in our daily lives. The handwritten letter has become quaint, millions of young music lovers have grown accustomed to free music (even if it's illegal), and more than a few marriages have been forged from dates hatched online.

 

So what's coming in the next 10 years?

 

Pew, along with Elon University in North Carolina, sought the opinions of people - both in the United States and abroad - who know the internet intimately or think about it a lot. About half of them were internet pioneers, having been online before 1993.

 

One-third were from academia, another third were from tech companies or consulting firms and the rest worked for non-profit organisations, publications or the government.

 

Of the experts surveyed by Pew in the northern autumn, 66% agreed that the internet or power grid would be successfully attacked. Only 18% disagreed or challenged the prediction.

 

Former CIA Director Robert Gates, speaking at a terrorism conference recently, said cyberterrorism could be the most potent weapon of mass destruction and could cripple the US economy.

 

"When a teenage hacker in the Philippines can wreak $US10 billion in damage to the US economy by implanting a virus, imagine what a sophisticated, well-funded effort to attack the computer base of our economy could accomplish," he said.

 

The survey let people define what would constitute a "devastating" attack - would it mean millions of people having to forgo email, instant messaging and web surfing for a few hours, or would it mean human casualties?

 

"If we include economic devastation, it's inevitable that we'll see a number of companies and industries upended," wrote Alexandra Samuel, a writer and consultant and author of a dissertation at Harvard University about politically motivated hacking. "If we mean devastating in the sense of directly causing loss of life or injury, it's much harder to predict."

 

Intensified surveillance by government or business, and more arrests as a result, was foreseen by 59% of the experts.

 

Some said they would welcome that development; others seemed to dread it.

 

"There will be greater surveillance, probably; greater arrests, maybe. But this is a chilling prospect overall," wrote Scott Marcus, the senior adviser for internet technology at the Federal Communications Commission.

 

Although many people have been predicting that the internet would transform schools, it has yet to become much more than a research tool. Nevertheless, 57% agreed that most students by 2014 will receive some of their knowledge through videoconferencing or online chats typed out on a keyboard - otherwise known as distance learning.

 

The notion that the internet will alter family life through home schooling and telecommuting drew agreement from 56% of the experts. Harry Jenkins, a professor of literature and comparative media studies at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote that people are already sensing the changes.

 

"For the most part," he wrote, "they are very nervous about a world where it is impossible to escape the office and where they face growing competition for their children's attention."

 

Elon University has also invited the general public, however inexpert they may be about the internet, to share their predictions about the internet and its impact on society.

 

Allen Apgar, the information technology manager for Clifton (New Jersey) Savings Bank, foresees a day when access to any computer will be controlled by biometrics - the particular physical traits of the user.

 

"So theoretically, you can be at the local grocery store and use a computer to access your home machine," he wrote.

 

Aaron Ratzan, a 23-year-old from East Brunswick, New Jersey, who was using the internet in the late 1980s, thinks wireless connections will be pervasive, not just limited to "hot spots." But he also posted a darker, retrograde vision, which he said was only "half a joke":

 

"Somewhere, something will malfunction - it will cause a massive electromagnetic burst that will shut down people's communications devices and electronic equipment. It will reset worldwide communication back to where it was in the early 1800s," he added.

[Ziggy]

Yeah, but, the Internet grid can't go down very easily . The Internet runs a form of mesh topology. That is, everything is connected to everything else (really, it's a group of routers under the same administrative group that are connected to eachother, then the ones on the border of another administrative group connect to other administrative groups). You'd have to take down about two thirds of the entire Internet infrastructure for it to make a major impact (well, besides speed drops and not being able to reach sites that have no route from themselves to you -- i.e. they're not connected to any routers that have access to you).